Entangled Russia

Entangled Russia
When speaking of Russia, one immediately imagines a gigantic black spider seated at the center of a web in which various insects are entangled. Some of these insects are still alive and await their fate. Others are in a near-death state, drained of blood and hoping for death as a release. The remaining ones have already found their liberation and hang lifelessly in the threads of the web. Meanwhile, the spider grows stronger each year. Spiders almost never die of natural causes. The spider’s shell is so strong it could withstand a nuclear strike, and the web it weaves, as thick as a pencil, could stop a flying Boeing. People who fall into these webs, like insects, slowly perish, unable to find a path to salvation, and lacking the strength to escape. Only a rare few manage to survive.

1. Domestic Political Situation in Russia

The year 2018 will mark the last year before the onset of a long autocratic political winter in Russia—one in which there will be no room for freedom of thought, speech, religion, or even the most basic human rights, which are respected and protected in civilized societies.

There is no doubt that Vladimir Putin will win the 2018 presidential election in Russia. In essence, this will not be a genuine election but rather the final and irreversible seizure of power by an organized criminal group, whose goal is the plundering of Russia for personal enrichment, accompanied by the humiliation and destruction of its own citizens.

This moment will become the last departure point, after which a wave of banditry, lawlessness, and genocide will flood Russia in blood—reminiscent of the Stalinist era.

Putin has achieved absolute power and control in Russia through placing his own loyalists at the head of every significant state institution: the Government, FSB, all ministries including the Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Defense, Ministry of Internal Affairs, the judiciary, and the media.

He has destroyed the independence of the judiciary and subordinated all law enforcement agencies to his personal control, thereby fueling corruption and bureaucratic lawlessness. Putin has created a vast corrupt system, which is now becoming increasingly uncontrollable, yet still serves his interests.

The Russian Government Is Preparing the Population for a Return to Stalinist Rule

The Russian government is already preparing its population for a return to Stalinist-style repression, as evidenced by the country’s overall political climate and public opinion polling on the matter.

According to RBC, citing the results of a VTSIOM (Russian Public Opinion Research Center) survey:

43% of Russians believe that without Stalin’s repressions, there would have been no order in the country.
The Russian public remains divided in its assessment of the Stalin-era purges. The gap between those who justify the repressions and those who condemn them is only 6%.

90% of respondents stated that they are familiar with the concept of “Stalin’s repressions.” At the same time, 72% believe it is necessary to speak more about the victims of the punitive regime so that such atrocities are never repeated. However, 22% feel that the subject should be discussed as little as possible, in order not to “damage the image of the country.”

The survey was conducted in July 2017 as part of a joint project by VTSIOM, the Gulag History Museum, and the Memory Foundation.

When reading the results of this survey, it becomes clear that the overwhelming majority of Russians are unfamiliar with the works of Alexander Solzhenitsyn. If they were, they would know that Solzhenitsyn explicitly described how completely innocent people were subjected to arrest—people who could not even imagine that such a fate might befall them.

A quote from The Gulag Archipelago by Solzhenitsyn:

“That’s what an arrest is: a blinding flash and a blow, and everything that had made up your life until then is instantly transformed into the past—and the impossible becomes your new reality.
That’s it. There is nothing more you can grasp in the first hour, or even in the first day.
In your despair, the only thing that still glimmers is a childish hope: ‘This is a mistake! They’ll sort it out!’
Everything else—the now-familiar and even literary image of arrest—will form not in your shattered mind, but in the memories of your family and your neighbors...”

International Perception of the Russian Political Climate

The political climate in Russia has now reached its most dangerous level since the Cold War. Here is how U.S. officials view the situation:

43% of respondents believe that Stalin’s repressions were necessary to maintain order in the country.
49% are convinced that such repressions can never be justified.
When asked about the judicial rulings in political repression cases, only 16% considered them fair, while 68% said they were not.

Furthermore:

37% believe the victims of repression were people who disagreed with government policy.
24% think that most of the repressed were traitors and conspirators.
10% believe that ethnic minorities were the main targets of Stalin-era repression.

These findings reflect a dangerous normalization of authoritarian ideology in contemporary Russian society—encouraged, if not directly cultivated, by state-controlled narratives.

The U.S. State Department Places Russia in the Same Risk Category as Niger

The U.S. Department of State has placed Russia in the same risk category as Niger in its latest ranking of dangerous countries. The U.S. authorities have issued updated travel advisories for American citizens planning to visit foreign nations. All countries are now divided into four categories based on the level of risk.

Russia has been grouped together with countries such as Niger, Chad, and Pakistan.

On January 10, 2018, the U.S. State Department published new travel recommendations on its official website, explaining that these guidelines are intended to help American citizens assess the risks associated with international travel. The new recommendations are presented both as an interactive world map and a comprehensive list of countries.

According to this classification, Russia was placed in the third category, which includes countries the State Department advises travelers to reconsider visiting.

Regarding Russia, Washington cites elevated risks of terrorism and aggression. Other countries listed in this same category include Turkey, Pakistan, Niger, Chad, and Nigeria.

(Source: RBC, Politics, January 10, 2018)

Commentary

This classification is a direct result of Vladimir Putin’s policies, which aim to cultivate both external and internal aggression, suppress all democratic foundations, and establish absolute authoritarian rule within Russia—while simultaneously attempting to dictate terms on the international stage.

Recent Domestic Political Events in Russia

Recent political events in Russia—such as the assassination of Boris Nemtsov, the arrests of activists following the Bolotnaya Square protest, the persecution of those supporting Alexei Navalny, and ultimately the denial of Navalny’s registration as a presidential candidate—have extinguished even the faintest hope that Russia might return to a democratic and civilized path of development.

After these events, any remaining illusions disappeared. In reality, there is no genuine political force in the country capable of resisting Putin’s criminal group, which has seized total control of the Russian state.

Today, the so-called opposition in Russia serves merely as a safety valve, used to release public pressure. While Nemtsov and Navalny openly stood against Putin, the current presidential candidates who label themselves as “independent” or “opposition” are in fact Kremlin-approved puppets, personally endorsed by Putin. These figures pose no real threat or competition to his power. On the contrary, they are carefully chosen to highlight Putin’s superiority and reinforce his image as an irreplaceable national leader.

The state-controlled media plays a crucial role in shaping this narrative and strengthening his image.

Of course, Russia still has courageous and capable individuals who could become strong leaders, but total censorship and systemic control prevent them from gaining public visibility or building significant electoral support.

At present, Alexei Navalny remains the only public figure representing genuine political opposition. However, Putin’s regime behaves as though this opposition does not exist—instead offering a fabricated version in the form of Ksenia Sobchak, as a theatrical gesture to simulate democracy.

As political analyst Dmitry Oreshkin observed:

“...Now, with the appearance of Ksenia Sobchak, it has become clear that a signal was given: ‘We don’t need Navalny.’ And that signal triggered a new wave of repression.
It’s called: ‘the order has been given—tear him to pieces.’ And so, they began tearing, each according to their capabilities.
For Navalny, this means a final and irreversible decision has been made: he will not be registered, he will be pushed to the margins, discredited, his supporters pressured, destroyed, and so on.”

Denial of Navalny's Presidential Candidacy and the Expansion of Repression

The refusal to register Alexei Navalny as a presidential candidate in Russia is nothing more than a manifestation of fear—fear of acknowledging the existence of a legitimate opposition that cannot be ignored. There is no doubt that even if Navalny had been hypothetically allowed to run, Putin and his inner circle would have done everything necessary to retain power.

This is reinforced by the VTSIOM poll conducted in February 2018, which reported that 71.5% of Russians supported Putin.

However, analysis of protest movements in Russia during 2016–2017 shows a decline in Putin’s popularity and a rise in public opposition.

Putin is so deeply concerned about potential election disruptions or spontaneous protests on election day that his apparatus of control has now extended into schools and even kindergartens.

“Russian regional authorities are adopting new methods to suppress opposition-minded activists. In late October, Svetlana Orlova, the Governor of Vladimir Oblast, issued a directive to monitor those who disagree with the current regime. The primary focus is on youth, and for now, their identification will be carried out under the pretext of ‘maintaining a stable and controlled environment in educational institutions within the municipality to ensure socio-political stability during the 2018 election campaign.’

This directive was signed by Elena Zaprudnova, Deputy Director of the Regional Department of Education, and its authenticity was confirmed by Navalny’s activists in Vladimir directly at the Department. According to reports, similar documents were even sent to preschool institutions, including nurseries—as if uprisings might erupt among toddlers.

The most disturbing detail is the proposed method of identifying activists: educational staff are expected to use gigapixel photography to record protest participants and then upload these images to the ‘Je Suis Maidan’ website.

Reports on these activities are to be submitted by the 15th day of the last month of each quarter—a dystopian combination of modern surveillance technology and bureaucratic routine.”

Experts Report Sharp Increase in Number of Protests in Russia

The number of social and political protests in Russia rose by 33% in the second quarter of the year compared to the beginning of 2017. Experts attribute this growth to seasonal activism and increasing social tension. In the second quarter of 2017, the number of protests in Russia increased by one-third relative to the first quarter. While 284 protest events were recorded in the first quarter, 378 were documented in the second. These figures are cited in the report “Russia in 2017: The Number of Protests Is Growing.”

The report notes that the level of protest activity was already high in 2016 and at the beginning of 2017. However, most demonstrations last year focused on specific issues — unpaid wages, demands of defrauded investors and homebuyers, rising utility tariffs, land development, the launch of the "Platon" toll system, and others. Authorities failed to address the root causes of these protests — and as a result, this year’s demonstrations have become more politicized. Protesters have increasingly taken to the streets with broader slogans, such as anti-corruption messages, the report’s authors note. This, they argue, accounts for the growing number of political rallies.

One cannot rule out the possibility that, fearing mass repression, the opposition will lose its strength and its influence over public consciousness, gradually appearing in the eyes of the people as a dangerous and futile movement. This trend is driven by arrests and beatings of activists from Navalny's campaign offices by police officers. But this is only the beginning — after the March 18, 2018 presidential election, the repressive machinery is expected to accelerate, with far more serious consequences, since Putin will no longer need to maintain a democratic façade.

The growth of protest movements in Russia is evidenced by mass rallies organized by Navalny across the country on October 7, 2017 and January 28, 2018. These protests were triggered by the Central Election Commission’s decision to bar Navalny from running in the 2018 presidential election, citing his criminal conviction in the “Kirovles” case.

On Sunday, a protest organized by Alexei Navalny in support of an “election boycott” took place across Russia. According to Navalny, demonstrations were held in 118 cities, and in 20% of cases — including Moscow and St. Petersburg — they were not officially authorized. According to the Ministry of Internal Affairs' press center, the rallies occurred in 46 regions. Citing sources in the Interior Ministry, Interfax reported around 3,500 participants. In Moscow, about 1,000 people gathered at Pushkin Square, according to official estimates. Among the slogans chanted by the crowd were traditional ones like “Putin is a thief” and “Russia will be free,” as well as new slogans related to the election, such as “We are not cattle, boycott the election.”

According to OVD-Info, as of 6:30 PM on Sunday, 257 people had been detained at protest actions across Russia, with the highest numbers in Cheboksary, Ufa, Kemerovo, and Murmansk. In Moscow, 16 people were detained, including Alexei Navalny himself — almost immediately upon his arrival on Tverskaya Street.

According to Leonid Volkov, head of Navalny’s federal campaign headquarters, despite a relatively high percentage of approved protests in the regions, pressure on activists organizing the demonstrations significantly increased. In cities such as Omsk, Pskov, St. Petersburg, Murmansk, and others, police seized campaign materials from offices calling for an election boycott. In Ufa, Orsk, Veliky Novgorod, and St. Petersburg, local protest coordinators were subjected to administrative arrests.

On Sunday morning, police forcibly broke into the office of the Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK) and confiscated equipment.

Preceding the “Voters’ Strike” protests were a series of anti-corruption rallies across Russia:

March 26, 2017 rally:
Tens of thousands of people took to the streets in dozens of Russian cities for an anti-corruption rally organized by Alexei Navalny. In most cases, the events were not sanctioned by local authorities. In Moscow, the protest took the form of a “walk,” with between 8,000 and 20,000 participants, according to various estimates.
The human rights project OVD-Info reported over 933 detentions, exceeding the number of arrests during the Bolotnaya Square protests five years earlier. Police used force against activists. Moscow city officials described the actions of law enforcement as “impeccable.”

June 12, 2017 rally:
The anti-corruption protests of June 12, 2017, were a continuation of the March 26 rallies, again organized by Navalny. Demonstrations took place in more than 150 cities across Russia, with 50,000 to 98,000 participants and more than 1,700 people detained.
The protests were once again sparked by the authorities’ lack of response to the Anti-Corruption Foundation’s investigative film “He Is Not Dimon to You,” which alleged corrupt ties involving then-Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev.

These rallies were marked by violent beatings of demonstrators by Ministry of Internal Affairs officers, some carried out to the sound of the national anthem, with protesters dragged by their hair amid shouts of “fascists.”

More details can be found on the TSN website (in Russian):
🔗 https://ru.tsn.ua/svit/itogi-protestov-v-rossii-zhestokie-izbieniya-tysyachi-zaderzhannyh-arest-navalnogo-na-30-sutok-876800.html

In Vladivostok, one of the participants in the anti-corruption rally, Vladimir Zanin, was detained, according to the OVD-Info portal, citing Zanin’s friend Alexander Shuryga. According to Shuryga, Zanin was taken to Police Department No. 4, denied access to a phone, and was threatened with prosecution under the article for assaulting a police officer.

Even before the start of the anti-corruption rally in Saint Petersburg, municipal deputy and Open Russia activist Daniil Ken was detained. Ken himself reported on Twitter that he was apprehended by officers from Center “E” as he was leaving his home. In addition, police officers visited the homes of Polina Kostyleva (head of Navalny’s city campaign office), Andrei Pivovarov (chair of the regional branch of Open Russia), and Nikolai Artyomenko (coordinator of the Vesna movement). All of them reported visits from police and Center “E” officers.
Later, Pivovarov told Mediazona that, despite the visit from “plainclothes individuals” who refused to identify themselves or show credentials, he was able to leave his home and depart.

According to OVD-Info, seven people were detained at the rally in Sochi. At this point, the following detainees are known by name: Stanislav Olshanov, Andrey Kiselev, Ivan Atamanov, a minor named Demyan, Viktor Shepilov, Dmitry Titkov, and one other unidentified individual.